Counterfactual Trial Simulation

Test protocol modifications before implementation with causal modeling

156

Simulations Run

Protocols Optimized

+18%

Avg Success Improvement

~2min

Avg Simulation Time

Configure Simulation

Select Trial

Dosage (mg)

Frequency

Treatment Duration (weeks)

Follow-up Period (weeks)

Simulation Results

Completed

Current Protocol

Success Probability

32%

Sample Size

n=833

Duration

18 months

Simulated Protocol

54%

Sample Size

n=342 (-59%)

Duration

24 months (+33%)

Key Changes

Enrollment restricted to Biomarker-Positive Group A

Increases response rate from 48% → 73% based on stratification model

Extended enrollment timeline

Smaller eligible pool increases time to full enrollment by ~6 months

Reduced sample size requirements

Higher effect size allows for 59% reduction in target enrollment

95% Confidence Intervals

Success Probability45% - 63%

Enrollment Duration20 - 28 months

What-If Scenarios

Narrow inclusion criteria?

+22% success• Longer enrollment

Reduce dose?

-8% success• Better safety

Change endpoint timing?

+5% success• Extended duration

Add biomarker screening?

+18% success• Higher screening costs

Recent Simulations

NCT-2024-045+22%

2 hours ago

NCT-2024-038+15%

1 day ago

NCT-2024-061+8%

2 days ago

Simulation Insight

Monte Carlo Analysis

Based on 10,000 iterations, the modified protocol shows a 68% probability of achieving regulatory endpoints with reduced sample size requirements.